Marilyn & the Goats: A new solution to an old problem
from Asad Zaman
Introduction: In a previous lecture, we gave a New Definition of Probability. In this lecture, we will show how this definition enables us to resolve the massive amount of controversy which surrounds an apparently simple probability puzzle, known as the Monty-Hall problem. The book The Power of Logical Thinking, quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli Palmarini: “No other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time [and] even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they insist on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer.” Before proceeding to discuss this problem, we review the key features of our new definition:
- Probability is a feature of external reality, not an aspect of our ignorance/knowledge.
- Probability exists PRIOR to occurrence of random event.
- Probability is EXTINGUISHED after event occurs. Read more